In 2021, Sam Altman from OpenAI shared his thoughts on the future of the economy and AI in a blog post called "Moore's Law for Everything." He predicted significant changes due to AI, which he believes will happen sooner than many expect. Altman highlights the shift of power from labor to capital, meaning that machines will take over more jobs, reducing the need for human labor.
Altman emphasizes that if public policies don’t keep up with AI advancements, many people could be worse off. Governments need to adapt quickly to avoid this. Altman warns that policy changes are crucial to ensure people benefit from AI, rather than facing increased hardships.
Altman forecasts that in the next five years, AI will be able to read legal documents and give medical advice. By the next decade, AI might handle assembly line work or even become companions. Beyond that, AI could do almost everything, including making new scientific discoveries. Some of these predictions, made in 2021, are already coming true, showing how fast AI is evolving.
He also predicts that AI will create enormous wealth, but this could lead to greater economic disparities unless managed correctly. Altman suggests that governments should implement new policies to distribute this wealth more fairly. This includes changes in how we tax companies and land, aiming to support everyone, not just the wealthy.
One of Altman’s ideas is the American Equity Fund. This fund would tax companies and land at 2.5% and distribute the money to all citizens over 18. Each person could use this money as they see fit. This approach aims to reduce poverty and allow more people to live the life they want. He believes this fund could provide around $13,500 annually to each adult, significantly increasing their purchasing power over time.
Altman points out that past technological revolutions have always created new jobs and opportunities. He believes the AI revolution will do the same, offering people more freedom to pursue creative and meaningful work. However, he stresses the need for policies that support this transition, ensuring that society benefits as a whole.
In conclusion, Altman calls for proactive policies to manage the upcoming changes. He believes we can create a more prosperous society if we embrace AI advancements and plan accordingly. The future, as he sees it, holds immense potential, but only if we take the right steps today.