OpenAI’s Roadmap to AGI: From Chatbots to Organizational AI

Gary Marcus recently argued that AI progress has slowed. He said we haven't seen big improvements since GPT-4 in August 2022. He believes scaling AI capabilities has hit a plateau.

Many disagree with Marcus. For example, experts say new AI models are coming. These models could bring big changes. They argue we have seen many improvements. These include faster models, expanded context windows, and better reasoning.

Demis Hassabis from Google also shared his thoughts. He believes the next big step will be agent-based systems. These systems will have agent-like behavior. He thinks combining game agents with large multimodal models is key. This could lead to more advanced AI systems.

Experts also see efficiency improvements. AI models are getting cheaper and more efficient. Companies like OpenAI continue to push boundaries. They are working on new models that could surprise us.

Critics like Marcus focus on benchmarks like MMLU. But experts say these benchmarks have errors. They believe better benchmarks are needed. For example, the AI community looks at real-world tasks. This offers a better picture of AI progress.

OpenAI's future plans also show promise. They have a roadmap that includes chatbots, reasoning agents, and more. This roadmap suggests we are close to achieving AGI, or artificial general intelligence. AGI would mean AI systems can perform any task a human can do.

In summary, the debate on AI progress continues. Critics highlight slow scaling, while experts point to upcoming models and real-world improvements. The future of AI remains exciting, with many believing big advancements are just around the corner.