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Leaked Document Predicts AGI by 2027 and Superintelligence Soon After

Leopold Ashenbrener, a former employee of OpenAI, recently released a detailed video and document predicting the future of artificial intelligence. Ashenbrener's insights are drawing attention worldwide. He believes that by 2027, we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This means machines will be as smart or even smarter than humans.

Ashenbrener's predictions are based on trends in computing power and efficiency. He explains how AI models have progressed from GPT-2 to GPT-4, which have shown impressive advancements. If this trend continues, he argues that achieving AGI in the next few years is quite plausible.

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In his document, Ashenbrener breaks down how computing power has increased. He mentions that discussions have shifted from billion-dollar to trillion-dollar computing clusters. These powerful machines are expected to help AI surpass human intelligence within the decade. The growth in AI's capabilities will likely lead to superintelligence, a level of intelligence far beyond human comprehension.

The implications of such advancements are significant. Ashenbrener warns that national security forces will play a crucial role as AI develops. The potential for automated AI research is also highlighted. By 2027, he believes AI researchers will be able to automate their own work, leading to rapid advancements and breakthroughs.

One key point Ashenbrener makes is the importance of algorithmic efficiencies. He notes that while investments in computing power get a lot of attention, improvements in algorithms are just as crucial. These efficiencies can lead to significant gains, making AI systems even more effective and powerful.

Ashenbrener emphasizes the need for situational awareness. He believes that only a few hundred people truly understand the current state of AI and its potential. He stresses the importance of being informed and prepared for the changes that are coming.

The document also addresses the idea of "unhobbling" AI models. This means removing constraints that limit their capabilities. By doing so, we can unlock even greater potential in these systems. Ashenbrener argues that as AI models become more powerful, their true capabilities will become apparent.

Finally, the document discusses the future of AI research. Ashenbrener predicts that by 2027, AI models will be able to perform the work of AI researchers and engineers. This will lead to a rapid acceleration in AI development, making the possibility of superintelligence more likely.

In summary, Ashenbrener's predictions paint a picture of a future where AI surpasses human intelligence. This will bring both opportunities and challenges. The race to AGI is on, and the next few years will be crucial in determining how this technology shapes our world.

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