Former OpenAI Employee’s Predictions for AI from 2021 to 2029
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In 2021, former OpenAI employee Daniel Cokal made some accurate predictions about AI. He predicted the "insane hype" around AI in 2023, and he was right. Now, he's made more predictions about the next five years of AI that deserve attention.
One of his 2021 predictions was about large multimodal transformers. He said they would grow to have half a trillion parameters and would cost millions to train. We see this now with the biggest models. It's impressive how accurately he foresaw this.
Daniel also predicted that by 2024, the AI risk community would have shorter timelines. He said that many would believe that by the end of this decade, AI could reach a "point of no return." This prediction is also coming true as many experts now focus on the singularity.
One of his new predictions is that by the end of 2024, we will see GPT Next. This model is expected to be a big improvement over the previous versions. It will have better task completion and decision-making abilities. Daniel thinks it might not happen this year, but it could happen soon after.
For 2025, he predicts that AI will be widely adopted as personal assistants. These agents will handle tasks like making purchases and following complex instructions. This will help users manage their daily lives better.
In 2026, Daniel predicts the emergence of superintelligent AGI. This AGI will surpass human performance in most tasks. He says it could learn and solve problems rapidly. Within 30 days of deployment, it might reach the skill level of hundreds of human experts.
By 2027, he predicts the transition to artificial superintelligence (ASI). This will be a rapid advancement in AI capabilities. There's a 70% chance of ASI emerging by 2030. This superintelligence could solve global challenges and drive major technological progress.
Daniel also talks about nanobot technology. If ASI does not happen, nanobots might become the next big thing. There's a 30% chance of significant nanobot development by 2027 or 2028. These tiny robots could change medicine, manufacturing, and environmental cleanup.
For 2029, he predicts the rise of humanoid robots. Creating these robots is hard because the physical world is tough to master. Currently, robots are very expensive and not practical for most tasks. However, with advances in AI and robotics, we might see useful humanoid robots by then.
In conclusion, Daniel's predictions highlight the rapid and exciting advancements in AI. Whether it's GPT Next, AI personal assistants, superintelligent AGI, or even nanobots, the future of AI holds many possibilities. Each development could change our world in ways we can barely imagine today.