Economist Michael Webb on AI and Job Market Predictions
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AI is changing many parts of our lives, but some jobs will still need a human touch. One big area is caregiving. Caring for older people is a job that needs someone to be there in person. This work will grow as people live longer and retire earlier. It’s not just about robots taking all jobs; many tasks need human care and presence.
People spend a lot of time in school before they start working. With longer lives and earlier retirements, the time spent working is less. Some people don’t work because they care for young kids or are already retired. Others choose to work fewer hours each week. More and more, people are working four-day weeks.
Work hours have dropped a lot over time. In 1870, people in America worked 70 hours a week. Now, it's about 35 hours a week. In the UK, work hours have dropped 20% in the past 30 years. People use their extra wealth to work less and enjoy more free time.
Michael Webb has an interesting view on the future. He thinks the next few years won’t be as big a change as some expect. He believes AI will be adopted slowly, not quickly. Even though ChatGPT quickly reached 100 million users, AI might not boost productivity as some think. Webb suggests that while AI will be useful, it won’t drastically change the job market overnight.
Looking back to the 1960s, people had big hopes for the first computers. They thought these machines could do anything. Today, we see that computers have become essential but didn’t replace all jobs. The same might happen with AI. It could help make some tasks easier but won’t take over every job.
Caregiving and other physical tasks will still need humans. These jobs are important and will likely grow. Even with AI and technology advancing, the human touch in certain jobs remains vital.
People will continue to balance work with other parts of life. More free time and fewer work hours seem to be the trend. AI will play a role in this, but it won't replace the need for human workers in many areas. The future holds a mix of tech and human effort, blending to create a balanced work-life experience.