AI Leaders Disagree on AGI Timeline: Seven Years or Possible Now?

Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman and OpenAI's Sam Altman have different views on when artificial general intelligence (AGI) might happen. Suleyman thinks AGI could be around seven years away, while Altman believes it can happen with today’s hardware. These contrasting views are raising eyebrows in the tech world.

Altman made his opinions clear during a Reddit AMA with the OpenAI team. He stated that AGI is possible on current hardware, like Nvidia's high-end chips. This idea suggests no major hardware changes are needed, making the timeline seem shorter. Some folks believe Altman might have said this to attract more investment, but it’s still a big claim.

On the other hand, Suleyman does not agree with Altman. He believes that AGI will need advances over the next two to five tech generations. Each generation can take between 18 to 24 months to develop. So, Suleyman estimates AGI could be five to seven years away. According to him, current tech like Nvidia's GB200 chips are not yet up to the task.

This debate highlights the different thoughts on AGI timelines. The definition of AGI is also essential in understanding these views. Suleyman describes AGI as a learning system that performs well in any human-level task, even physical labor. This broad definition sets a high bar for AGI, implying it needs more time and tech progress to become real.

Knowing these different perspectives helps in understanding where tech is heading. It shows the challenges and possibilities in creating a machine that can match human intelligence. This discussion will continue to shape expectations and investments in AI’s future.

As tech evolves, the path to AGI remains a topic of interest. Whether it happens soon or takes longer depends on numerous factors. But one thing is certain: the journey to AGI will involve lots of innovation and discussion.