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AI Development and the Gardner Hype Cycle: Current Trends and Future Predictions

Many people believe we are at the top of the Gardner hype cycle for AI. They think we are about to experience the trough of delusion. This means people expect AI excitement to drop soon. It seems like there is a lack of new AI developments. But, we should remember the many insane model releases we saw this year.

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We have not exhausted all our available compute power yet. Recent models have only been trained up to $100 million. While that is a huge number, it is just the beginning. Future models could have billion-dollar or even ten-billion-dollar training runs. This means we will see more returns due to scaling laws. Despite people thinking AI hype is about to die down, it is not true. AI will continue to impact almost everything.

AI technology is not at diminishing returns on scale-up. It takes time to build supercomputers and train models. The next sample of improvements is coming soon. We cannot predict when exactly, but each generation of AI models improves. Expensive and fragile things will get cheaper and more reliable. This will make more complicated tasks possible.

AI development might seem slow due to the long wait times. But, the results are worth it. Each new model brings better, more affordable, and more robust AI systems. Expect to see better performance and new capabilities with each generation.

In some areas, AI tech may feel too fragile or costly to use. These issues will get better as new models come out. The improvements will make AI more practical and versatile. This is the story of AI progress: slow but steady advancements leading to great results.

In conclusion, AI is not slowing down. Despite the current sentiment of being at the peak of expectations, more improvements are on the way. We must be patient and recognize the massive potential AI holds. The next generation of AI models will bring greater reliability, lower costs, and new possibilities. The excitement around AI is far from over.

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